The Rightmove House Price Index for November 2009 has now been released. The survey tiffany jewellery measures new properties for sale in the last month covering 90% of the market.
Average national asking prices fell by 3,744 pounds Sterling this month as the traditional autumn buoyancy tailed off. The 1.6% decrease compares with falls of 2.9% in November last year and 0.7% in November 2007. The onset of the winter market brings what we predict will be the first of three monthly falls before house prices resume their recovery in February of next year. Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove comments: “In all but the most buoyant of markets, home moving comes second to Christmas festivities. While the market has recovered from some dreadful lows, this month’s price fall proves that it does not yet have the strength to buck seasonal trends. We therefore expect three months of asking price falls before a tentative recovery in early spring, likely followed by pre-election jitters.”
The extent of the market recovery from the dramatic price falls seen last year is shown by key rings year-on-year price rises in seven out of ten regions, resulting in an average national rise of 1.6% compared to November 2008. A majority of the country now has average asking prices that are above those of twelve months ago. Only the East Midlands, the North and the North-West remain in negative year-on-year territory. The East Midlands is the worst performer with prices 1.6% below those of November 2008, with the North down 0.6% and the North-West just short of breakeven at minus 0.1%. The southern regions show the largest increases, with the South-East leading the way with an average rise of 3.8% driven by the lowest average stock levels per estate agency branch. At the other end of the scale, the three regions still in negative year-on-year price territory have the highest stock numbers per estate agency branch.
Shipside adds: “The shortage of stock is worse in the south than it is in the north, leading to greater upwards pressure on prices due to higher numbers of willing and able buyers who have fewer properties to choose from. Recoveries tend to start in the south, and with mortgage lenders favouring buyers with larger deposits and greater job necklaces security, it is no surprise that the trend has been repeated this time around. With parts of the north of the country also clawing their way back to a year-on-year price standstill, we recorded an average annual national rise of 3,461 pounds. That would have looked pretty far-fetched a year ago.”